Impact of the conflict with Iran on global fertilizer prices and food security

The World Bank has warned that the ongoing conflict with Iran is threatening global food security by disrupting supply chains and driving up the costs of agricultural raw materials. Fertilizer prices have seen significant increases, with urea rising by up to 40% to reach 700 dollars per ton, compared to pre-war prices of 450 to 500 dollars. Ammonia prices have surged by nearly 50% in certain markets, while phosphorus has experienced more moderate growth. Farmers are facing their lowest economic viability levels in four years due to these rising costs. Despite these trends, the association Fertilisers Europe stated that the European Union does not face immediate supply shortages for the current period, noting that local production meets 70% of demand and that record imports were recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. Nevertheless, industry experts warn that the true impact of these high costs on consumer food prices is expected to materialize during next year's harvest cycle. There are calls for European institutions to increase financial support for the agricultural sector as profit margins continue to tighten.