War in Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz impact global energy markets

The ongoing war in Iran, now entering its second month, has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices above $100 per barrel. European Commission and European Central Bank (ECB) officials have expressed concerns that a failure to resolve the conflict by the end of April will trigger a severe global energy crisis. The European economy remains particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on imported fossil fuels. The ECB has identified April 30 as a critical milestone for its upcoming interest rate policy decisions. If the conflict persists beyond this date, sources indicate the ECB is prepared to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. ECB President Christine Lagarde has highlighted risks regarding eurozone inflation and economic growth. Current ECB projections for the second quarter assume average prices of $90 per barrel for oil and 50 euros per MWh for natural gas.