Gulf oil supply disruptions and Iranian export trends amid conflict

Since February 28, the Gulf region has experienced intensified conflict, resulting in the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and a reduction in oil production among Gulf nations. Most regional states have reported decreased export revenues as a direct consequence of these supply constraints. In contrast, Iran has maintained its export operations despite ongoing American and Israeli bombing campaigns that commenced on the same date. According to anonymous sources, Iran's daily oil and product exports remain between 2.4 and 2.8 million barrels, of which 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels are crude oil. This volume is reportedly equal to or higher than the 2024 average. Information gathering has become difficult due to restricted satellite imagery and electronic interference in the region. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has issued threats to destroy power plants if no agreement is reached, and Iran has reportedly conducted airstrikes against a refinery in Haifa.